The Government of Ukraine has approved two scenarios for the macroeconomic forecast

• The government has approved two scenarios for the macroeconomic forecast until 2028.
• The first scenario predicts GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026.
• The second scenario forecasts growth of 2.4% and higher inflation.

This is reported by Ukrayinska Pravda, Interfax Ukraine.

The government of Ukraine has approved the main projected macroeconomic and social indicators for 2026-2028, outlining two possible scenarios. The decision was made on September 6, 2025.

Details: The first scenario predicts real GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026 with inflation at 8.6%. The second scenario forecasts a larger increase of 2.4% and inflation at 9.9%.

The optimistic scenario anticipates GDP growth rising to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, with inflation at 7.1% and 5.6% respectively. In the less favorable scenario, GDP will grow by 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, while inflation is expected to decrease more significantly—to 9.7% and 7.5%.

According to the first scenario, the number of economically active persons will reach 15.37 million in 2026, increasing to 13 million and rising to 13.2 million by 2028. In the second scenario, these indicators are 0.2 million lower.

The unemployment rate under the first scenario will increase from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, and then decrease to 12.8% in 2028. The second scenario predicts a gradual increase in unemployment from 12.6% to 13.1% over the same period.

It is expected that the average monthly salary, adjusted for inflation, will increase by 6.5% in the first scenario and by 4.6% in the second.

The decision does not specify which of the scenarios will become the basis for drafting the state budget for 2026.

Note: The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a significant budget deficit in 2025 (22% of GDP), with a gradual reduction to 19% of GDP in 2026 due to high spending on defense.

Tags: Ukraine/Economy