Oil prices are expected to drop to $40 per barrel

• Global oil prices may fall to $40-50 per barrel.
• Saudi Arabia is significantly increasing oil production.
• Exports from Brazil and China are exceeding market expectations.

This is reported by Ukrayinska Pravda, RBC Ukraine.

According to data from the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, global oil prices could decrease to $40-50 per barrel by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026.

At the moment, the price per barrel is around $66-68, but the market is already adjusting to a new price level, which threatens further declines.

The main reason for the price drop is the increase in production within the OPEC+ framework. Saudi Arabia is significantly increasing output, which contributes to excess supply in the market.

In addition, exports of Russian oil are rising, despite low prices, which increases pressure on the market. Additional risks for prices stem from the weakening Chinese economy—one of the largest consumers of oil.

The increase in crude oil exports from Brazil, Guyana, and Norway also contributes to further excess supply.

In this context, geopolitical risks have less impact on oil prices, which indicates the formation of a new balance of supply and demand.

If this trend continues, the Russian fund predicts a "shock" price range of $40-50 per barrel, which could significantly impact the global economy and the budgets of exporting countries.

Economy of Russia

It is worth noting that the largest exporters of Russia have reduced their planned exports for 2025. The volumes of exporters that reached a 15-year minimum in 2024 are an indicative indicator of the state of the manufacturing sector in Russia's export-oriented economy.

Earlier, it was reported that Vladimir Putin is increasingly confronted with challenges that affect the Russian economy in wartime conditions.

Tags: Economy/Energy